Welcome to the "Volatility"

Before I begin, I must confess that I am no subject matter expert on what I am going to write. The content may sound a bit amateurish and a bit like old wine in older bottles, things which you have read and re-read, to the point of obscurity. But that 's what blogs are for I guess. To vent out what you want to. :)

Few days back, as I was commuting from work to home in a shared auto, I was privileged to see this fight.Read below:

"Yeh kya hai!!" the auto driver screamed. The man looked bewildered.
"Bhada 4 nahin .. 5 Rs hai ..aur ek rupiah nikaalo"
"5 Rs !! tum log lutte to ho". The man stood his ground
"Yeh 4 ka kya karun be. Sala chaiy to 5 ki ati hai. Kaunsi duniya mein rehte ho"
" Tere chaiy ke liye kya mein apni chaiy chorr dun. Diesel 2 Rs badha kya nahin tum log har kisise 1-2 Rs extra charge kar lete ho. 4 kaafi hai"

And it went on and on. It was quite amusing for rest of us to see 2 people fighting for tea at tea-time. But then both men had their point. The autowalla had to pay more for his diesel bills now. The commuter to his much chagrin had to pay 1 Re more, though only 2 months back the hire had been raised by 1 Re. Almost 66 percent rise in his traveling expenses in 2-3 months.

As crude screeched passed 100$ per barrel few months back, we have entered a new world. Welcome to this new world of high volatility, technically a high standard deviation in everything, be it food prices, oil prices or climate change. After falling slightly from 135$ to 122$ per barrel, oil again headed to 135 $ within a matter of days. And that too because a Israeli minister threatened to attack Iran, a major oil producer. A very small "warning" having a profound effect on the whole world. And again watching the 2 men involved in Hyderabad Tea Party, I could imagine the degree of food riots ravaging the African nations and an inflation rate of 24 percent in Sri Lanka, which are some of the headlines hogging the international limelight. I guess we are much blessed. Rice, wheat and all essential commodities have doubled, tripled and quadrupled in international markets in a matter of 1 year.

As we fight an inflation touching almost double digits now, we can safely say that we are in a world where a little imbalance can swiftly change things. From a "India Shining" story to a nation gripped with almost 8-10 percent fiscal deficit in almost 6 months through rising import bills. India Inc will soon find it hard to woo the Indian consumers. A right step to ward off this situation would be to accept the price rise by the middle class atleast. For long has been this class behaving like a pampered child guzzling down highly subsidized energy. The next step logically should be to adopt "energy-efficient" lifestyle.

If in 20 th century men fought with each other for the world supremacy, be it world wars or cold war, the 21 st century may be fought between men and the nature. And the best way to win this war may be to avoid it and live in harmony.